The track record of one forecasting method: how many questions it forecast or sk...
https://x402-archive.claimcheck.workers.dev/v1/calibration/arm/:armOverview
The track record of one forecasting method: how many questions it forecast or skipped, log score, Brier score and a calibration curve, with how many forecasts were made before and after the question closed. Method slugs are listed free at /v1/index.
Protocol
x402
Price
$0.01
Payment Asset
USD Coin
Payment Network
eip155:8453
Category
real-time-data/weather
Provider
Forecast track records
Source
bazaar
Indexed
2026-11-07 21:08:00
Health
Status
unknown
Latency (p50)
—
Uptime (30d)
—
Reliability Score
—
Last Checked
Never
Last Healthy
Never
Consecutive Failures
0
x402 Payment Validation
Payment Requirements
—
Asset Verified
—
Facilitator
—
Input Schema
{
"method": "GET",
"pathParams": {
"arm": "arm1_refclass-bayes_1.0.0"
},
"queryParams": {},
"type": "http"
}
Output Schema
{
"example": {
"answer": {
"arm_key": "arm1:refclass-bayes@1.0.0",
"domains": {
"props": {
"calibration": [
{
"clusters": 223,
"hi": 0.05,
"lo": 0,
"mean_forecast": 0.029531489211764465,
"n": 287,
"observed_rate": 0.05226480836236934
},
{
"clusters": 148,
"hi": 0.1,
"lo": 0.05,
"mean_forecast": 0.07665300601262731,
"n": 199,
"observed_rate": 0.11557788944723618
}
],
"denominators": {
"abstained": 705,
"forecast_rows": 5734,
"in_scope": 5734,
"recorded_after_close": 542,
"recorded_before_close": 5192,
"scored": 4519
},
"metrics": {
"base_rate": 0.4025226820092941,
"brier": 0.2336148473622579,
"mean_log_score": -0.6569795325648566,
"n_scored": 4519
}
}
},
"retired": false
},
"kind": "calibration.arm",
"licence": "For the buyer's own use. No redistribution. No warranty: these are research notes about fringe-physics literature and the outputs of experimental forecasting arms, not advice.",
"proof": {
"root": "9cfb3779688efecec220b449061c984942214e7d33c0dee938141408bf65fb0a",
"store": "forecast-arms"
}
},
"type": "json"
}